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Lincoln vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Exeter City
Exeter City
T. Hopper 49'
S. Nombe 14'
7/30/2022League OneLeague One · Round 1LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln57%
×Draw21%
Exeter City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
2.02
Exeter City
1.18

Lincoln creates 71% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Exeter City
1.02

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Exeter City
2.03

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Exeter City+0.08on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
78%
Lincoln or Exeter City
79%
Draw or Exeter City
43%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
34%
Exeter City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
87%
Lincoln 2+ goals
60%
Lincoln 3+ goals
33%
Exeter City 1+ goals
69%
Exeter City 2+ goals
33%
Exeter City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
72%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.03 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Exeter City defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.02

Exeter City attack 1.02 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lincoln scores more
57%
level
21%
Exeter City scores more
22%

Lincoln at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. HartridgeExeter CityExeter City · D
7.5

Match Events

14'
S. Nombe↳ J. Brown
32'
Pierce Sweeney
49'
T. Hopper↳ H. Adelakun
58'
Timothée Dieng
62'
E. Bishop← T. Oakley-Boothe
68'
H. Kite← J. Coley
74'
M. Jay← S. Nombe
85'
C. Maguire← H. Adelakun
90+2'
Lasse Sørensen

Possession

54%Lincoln

Shots

11Lincoln

Pass accuracy

50%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnExeter
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots7
8Corners4
6Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots7
2On Target2
6Off Target4
3Blocked1
5Inside Box6
6Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
384Total Passes342
251Accurate Passes221
65%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides9

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Exeter City

Lincoln and Exeter City drew 1-1 in League One on July 30, 2022.

Goals: S. Nombe (14'), T. Hopper (49').

Lincoln controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.