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Exeter City vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
11/16/2024League OneLeague One · Round 16St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Exeter City36%
×Draw27%
Lincoln36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.23
Lincoln
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 157 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.23
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Exeter City
1.21
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
64%
Exeter City or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
64%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
16%
Lincoln wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
71%
Exeter City 2+ goals
35%
Exeter City 3+ goals
13%
Lincoln 1+ goals
71%
Lincoln 2+ goals
35%
Lincoln 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
50%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Exeter City scores more
36%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
36%

Exeter City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
L. MontsmaLincolnLincoln · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
Conor McGrandles
44'
Ben House
46'
E. Erhahon← P. OConnor
56'
D. Mitchell← V. Harper
56'
J. Bird← C. Watts
64'
J. Makama← B. Cadamarteri
66'
Ryan Woods
72'
Pierce Sweeney
79'
D. Duffy← B. House
90'
Ryan Woods
90'
Ryan Woods
90+1'
J. Fitzwater← J. Aitchison
90+2'
J. McKiernan← E. Hamilton

Possession

58%Exeter

Shots

7Exeter

Pass accuracy

55%Exeter

Statistics

ExeterLincoln
Overview
58%Possession42%
7Total Shots14
5Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots14
1On Target3
2Off Target9
4Blocked2
5Inside Box11
2Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
377Total Passes272
265Accurate Passes158
70%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

League One: Exeter City 0–0 Lincoln

Exeter City and Lincoln drew 0-0 in League One on November 16, 2024.

Exeter City controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.