Lincoln 2–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

R. Gotts 71' (OG)

F. Okoronkwo 31'

B. Hanlan 70'

11/15/2025

League One · Round 16LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lincoln33%

×Draw21%

Doncaster47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.14

Lincoln

1.77

Doncaster

2.14

Doncaster creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.76

creates per match

2.51

1.77

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Lincoln

1.76

Doncaster

2.51

allows per match

Lincoln

1.77

Doncaster

1.78

+0.84scores more than expected

finishing

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.84scores more

Doncaster-0.68scores less

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

53%

Lincoln or Doncaster

79%

Draw or Doncaster

67%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

16%

Doncaster wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

83%

Lincoln 2+ goals

53%

Lincoln 3+ goals

26%

Doncaster 1+ goals

88%

Doncaster 2+ goals

63%

Doncaster 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

41%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

Doncaster away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.78 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.76 + Doncaster defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Doncaster attack 2.51 + Lincoln defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lincoln scores more

33%

level

21%

Doncaster scores more

47%

Doncaster at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Bradley

Lincoln · D

8.5

Match Events

31'

F. Okoronkwo↳ T. Darikwa

36'

38'

44'

58'

66'

68'

68'

J. Obikwu← F. Okoronkwo

70'

B. Hanlan↳ L. Molyneux

71'

R. GottsOwn goal

75'

R. Towler← F. Draper

79'

D. Jefferies← R. Street

79'

J. McGrath← M. Pearson

79'

T. Nixon← J. Sterry

80'

G. Middleton← J. Gibson

84'

Dom Jefferies

90+6'

Brandon Hanlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnDoncaster

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots15

0.54Expected Goals (xG)3.05

3Corners1

12Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target5

2Off Target7

2Blocked3

6Inside Box12

1Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

428Total Passes445

312Accurate Passes342

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1