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Lincoln vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Doncaster
Doncaster
1/30/2021League OneLeague One · Round 27LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lincoln34%
×Draw22%
Doncaster44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.61
Doncaster
1.86

Doncaster creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.76
Doncaster
1.95

allows per match

Lincoln
1.77
Doncaster
1.47

finishing

Lincoln+0.84scores more
Doncaster-0.80scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
56%
Lincoln or Doncaster
78%
Draw or Doncaster
66%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
16%
Doncaster wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
80%
Lincoln 2+ goals
48%
Lincoln 3+ goals
22%
Doncaster 1+ goals
84%
Doncaster 2+ goals
55%
Doncaster 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
43%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.76 + Doncaster defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Lincoln defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lincoln scores more
34%
level
22%
Doncaster scores more
44%

Doncaster at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Lincoln 0–1 Doncaster

Doncaster beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.