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Lincoln vs Derby — League One 2025

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
1/20/2024League OneLeague One · Round 29LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lincoln53%
×Draw25%
Derby22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.65
Derby
0.98

Lincoln creates 68% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.19
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Lincoln
0.85
Derby
1.11

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
78%
Lincoln or Derby
75%
Draw or Derby
47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
28%
Derby wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
81%
Lincoln 2+ goals
49%
Lincoln 3+ goals
23%
Derby 1+ goals
62%
Derby 2+ goals
26%
Derby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
Derby (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.19 + Derby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Derby attack 1.11 + Lincoln defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more
53%
level
25%
Derby scores more
22%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. HamiltonLincolnLincoln · F
8.2

Match Events

18'
Callum Elder
45+2'
Kane Wilson
57'
D. Duffy← R. Hackett
67'
T. John-Jules← L. Sibley
68'
Freddie Draper
68'
Joe Taylor
77'
J. Moylan← J. Taylor
77'
L. Thompson← T. Barkhuizen
87'
J. Makama← F. Draper

Possession

35%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

45%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnDerby
Overview
35%Possession65%
10Total Shots19
5Corners12
7Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots19
4On Target3
4Off Target9
2Blocked7
5Inside Box11
5Outside Box8
Passing
35%Possession65%
278Total Passes520
180Accurate Passes409
65%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 0–0 Derby

Lincoln and Derby drew 0-0 in League One on January 20, 2024.

Derby controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.