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Lincoln vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
S. Bradley 67'
A. Robertson 40' (OG)
P. Ng 49'
12/20/2025League OneLeague One · Round 21LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lincoln47%
×Draw24%
Cardiff29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.73
Cardiff
1.30

Lincoln creates 33% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.30
Cardiff
1.74

allows per match

Lincoln
0.87
Cardiff
1.17

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
71%
Lincoln or Cardiff
76%
Draw or Cardiff
53%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
25%
Cardiff wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
82%
Lincoln 2+ goals
52%
Lincoln 3+ goals
25%
Cardiff 1+ goals
73%
Cardiff 2+ goals
37%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
62%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.30 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Lincoln defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lincoln scores more
47%
level
24%
Cardiff scores more
29%

Lincoln at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. BradleyLincolnLincoln · D
8.9

Match Events

22'
Thomas Hamer
34'
Conor McGrandles
40'
A. RobertsonOwn goal
44'
Omari Kellyman
46'
R. Kpakio← J. Bagan
49'
P. Ng↳ Y. Salech
63'
R. Towler← J. Moylan
64'
J. Obikwu← F. Draper
67'
S. Bradley↳ T. Bayliss
74'
I. Davies← C. Willock
74'
C. Robinson← A. Robertson
80'
George Wickens
82'
D. Turnbull← R. Wintle
86'
D. Jefferies← R. Hackett-Fairchild
87'
F. Okoronkwo← R. Street
90+6'
I. Varfolomeev← T. Bayliss

Possession

33%Lincoln

Shots

18Lincoln

Pass accuracy

46%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnCardiff
Overview
33%Possession67%
18Total Shots11
1.88Expected Goals (xG)2.54
4Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots11
7On Target4
8Off Target4
3Blocked3
10Inside Box8
8Outside Box3
Passing
33%Possession67%
266Total Passes562
192Accurate Passes484
72%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Cardiff

Lincoln beat Cardiff 2-1 in League One on December 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Robertson (40' o.g.), P. Ng (49'), S. Bradley (67').

Cardiff controlled possession (67%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at LNER stadium in Lincoln.