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Lincoln vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
2/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 31LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Lincoln54%
×Draw24%
Cambridge United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.66
Cambridge United
0.94

Lincoln creates 77% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 92 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.53
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
79%
Lincoln or Cambridge United
76%
Draw or Cambridge United
46%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
29%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
81%
Lincoln 2+ goals
49%
Lincoln 3+ goals
23%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
61%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
24%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
72%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.53 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lincoln scores more
54%
level
24%
Cambridge United scores more
21%

Lincoln at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Lincoln 1–1 Cambridge United

Lincoln and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in League One on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.