Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lincoln vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
J. Burroughs 58' (OG)
10/14/2023League OneLeague One · Round 13LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln49%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.82
Burton Albion
1.31

Lincoln creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
72%
Lincoln or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
51%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
27%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
84%
Lincoln 2+ goals
54%
Lincoln 3+ goals
27%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
64%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lincoln scores more
49%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
28%

Lincoln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. CrocombeBurton AlbionBurton Albion · G
7.9

Match Events

26'
Joe Powell
53'
Sam Hughes
55'
Daniel Mandroiu
55'
Ryan Sweeney
58'
J. BurroughsOwn goal
60'
J. Caprice← J. Gordon
66'
H. Adelakun← E. Bishop
66'
R. Harper← M. Bennett
74'
S. Roughan← A. Mitchell
80'
Ethan Erhahon
81'
Kwadwo Baah
82'
A. Smith← E. Erhahon
82'
D. Duffy← R. Hackett

Possession

58%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

53%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBurton
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots6
4Corners4
8Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots6
3On Target1
3Off Target5
4Blocked0
2Inside Box2
8Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
483Total Passes339
393Accurate Passes247
81%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
5Offsides0

League One: Lincoln 0–1 Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on October 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Burroughs (58' o.g.).

Lincoln controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.