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Burton Albion vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
9/13/2025League OneLeague One · Round 8Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Burton Albion36%
×Draw27%
Lincoln38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.25
Lincoln
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 178 home / 158 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
62%
Burton Albion or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
64%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
71%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
36%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
13%
Lincoln 1+ goals
72%
Lincoln 2+ goals
37%
Lincoln 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
49%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burton Albion scores more
36%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
38%

Lincoln at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Burton Albion 0–1 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Burton Albion 1-0 in League One on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton upon Trent.