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Lincoln vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
A. Scully 62'
T. Hopper 38', 21'
J. Powell 30', 6'
3/7/2020League OneLeague One · Round 37Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln49%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.82
Burton Albion
1.31

Lincoln creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
72%
Lincoln or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
51%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
27%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
84%
Lincoln 2+ goals
54%
Lincoln 3+ goals
27%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
64%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lincoln scores more
49%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
28%

Lincoln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. PowellBurton AlbionBurton Albion · M
8.9

Match Events

6'
J. Powell↳ J. Murphy
21'
T. Hopper↳ A. Scully
30'
J. Powell↳ R. Hutchinson
38'
T. Hopper↳ J. Grant
61'
Michael Bostwick
61'
John-Joe O'Toole
62'
A. Scully↳ J. Morrell
70'
C. Daniel← R. Hutchinson
71'
S. Fraser← R. Edwards
75'
Jake Buxton
82'
J. Sbarra← J. Buxton
89'
H. Anderson← J. Grant

Possession

38%Lincoln

Shots

8Lincoln

Pass accuracy

46%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBurton
Overview
38%Possession62%
8Total Shots12
2Corners5
13Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots12
3On Target7
3Off Target2
2Blocked3
5Inside Box10
3Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
360Total Passes556
251Accurate Passes459
70%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Burton Albion

Lincoln beat Burton Albion 3-2 in League One on March 7, 2020.

Goals: J. Powell (6', 30'), T. Hopper (21', 38'), A. Scully (62').

Burton Albion controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sincil Bank in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.