Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lincoln vs Bristol Rovers — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
3/16/2024League OneLeague One · Round 39LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Lincoln51%
×Draw25%
Bristol Rovers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.56
Bristol Rovers
0.96

Lincoln creates 63% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 133 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.53
Bristol Rovers
0.94

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Bristol Rovers
1.58

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
77%
Lincoln or Bristol Rovers
75%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
49%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
27%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
79%
Lincoln 2+ goals
46%
Lincoln 3+ goals
21%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
62%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
25%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
69%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.53 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lincoln scores more
51%
level
25%
Bristol Rovers scores more
23%

Lincoln at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Lincoln 5–0 Bristol Rovers

Lincoln beat Bristol Rovers 5-0 in League One on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.