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Lincoln vs Blackburn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
B. Dack 46'
7/23/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lincoln26%
×Draw24%
Blackburn50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.12
Blackburn
1.65

Blackburn creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.33
Blackburn
1.64

allows per match

Lincoln
1.67
Blackburn
0.91

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
50%
Lincoln or Blackburn
76%
Draw or Blackburn
74%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
10%
Blackburn wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
67%
Lincoln 2+ goals
31%
Lincoln 3+ goals
10%
Blackburn 1+ goals
81%
Blackburn 2+ goals
49%
Blackburn 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
34%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.33 + Blackburn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Blackburn attack 1.64 + Lincoln defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lincoln scores more
26%
level
24%
Blackburn scores more
50%

Blackburn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
B. Dack

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Lincoln 0–1 Blackburn

Blackburn beat Lincoln 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 23, 2022.

Goals: B. Dack (46').

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.