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Lincoln vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/9/2025League OneLeague One · Round 19LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Lincoln40%
×Draw26%
Barnsley34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.42
Barnsley
1.29

Lincoln creates 10% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 118 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.53
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
66%
Lincoln or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
60%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
19%
Barnsley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
76%
Lincoln 2+ goals
41%
Lincoln 3+ goals
17%
Barnsley 1+ goals
72%
Barnsley 2+ goals
37%
Barnsley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.53 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more
40%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
34%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Lincoln 3–1 Barnsley

Lincoln beat Barnsley 3-1 in League One on December 9, 2025.

The match was played at LNER stadium in Lincoln.