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Lincoln vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
4/18/2023League OneLeague One · Round 43LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lincoln41%
×Draw24%
Barnsley35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.65
Barnsley
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.64
Barnsley
1.53

allows per match

Lincoln
1.51
Barnsley
1.67

finishing

Lincoln+0.86scores more
Barnsley+0.30scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
65%
Lincoln or Barnsley
76%
Draw or Barnsley
59%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
21%
Barnsley wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
81%
Lincoln 2+ goals
49%
Lincoln 3+ goals
23%
Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
45%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.64 + Barnsley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Barnsley attack 1.53 + Lincoln defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lincoln scores more
41%
level
24%
Barnsley scores more
35%

Lincoln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. JacksonLincolnLincoln · D
8.2

Match Events

19'
Herbie Kane
63'
Bobby Thomas
67'
L. Thomas← H. Kane
67'
M. Watters← D. Cole
67'
S. Tedić← J. Norwood
71'
S. Roughan← O. Shodipo
71'
T. Oakley-Boothe← D. Duffy
82'
J. Benson← Z. Larkeche
90+1'
Mads Juel Andersen
90+2'
J. Makama← L. Plange

Possession

39%Lincoln

Shots

9Lincoln

Pass accuracy

45%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBarnsley
Overview
39%Possession61%
9Total Shots15
4Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots15
1On Target1
5Off Target6
3Blocked8
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box7
Passing
39%Possession61%
313Total Passes500
168Accurate Passes335
54%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 0–0 Barnsley

Lincoln and Barnsley drew 0-0 in League One on April 18, 2023.

Barnsley controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.