Lincoln 1–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Accrington ST

J. Diamond 60' (pen)

H. Rodgers 85'

11/1/2022

League One · Round 8LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Lincoln52%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.97

Lincoln

1.58

Accrington ST

0.97

Lincoln creates 63% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 107 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

0.99

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

77%

Lincoln or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

48%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

27%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

79%

Lincoln 2+ goals

47%

Lincoln 3+ goals

21%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

62%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

25%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

69%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lincoln scores more

52%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

23%

Lincoln at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

T. Savin

Accrington ST · G

8.0

Match Events

27'

Matthew Virtue-Thick

38'

J. Wright← C. Rushworth

45+1'

45+1'

50'

54'

60'

J. DiamondPenalty

70'

D. Martin← L. Coyle

70'

L. Adekoya← S. Whalley

75'

R. Longelo-Mbule← D. Tharme

78'

82'

83'

85'

88'

S. Conneely← T. Leigh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnAccrington

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots10

7Corners8

9Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

7On Target3

1Off Target6

1Blocked1

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

409Total Passes329

276Accurate Passes188

67%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2