Lincoln 2–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

J. Akinde 81' (pen)

M. O'Connor 35'

8/3/2019

League One · Round 1Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Lincoln52%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.97

Lincoln

1.58

Accrington ST

0.97

Lincoln creates 63% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 107 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

0.99

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

77%

Lincoln or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

48%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

27%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

79%

Lincoln 2+ goals

47%

Lincoln 3+ goals

21%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

62%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

25%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

69%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lincoln scores more

52%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

23%

Lincoln at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Vickers

Lincoln · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

Harry Toffolo

35'

M. O'Connor↳ J. Grant

70'

Wilson Carvalho← J. Pritchard

76'

J. Akinde← T. Walker

78'

Bruno Andrade← H. Anderson

78'

L. Sherif← S. Conneely

81'

J. AkindePenalty

82'

E. Chapman← M. OConnor

84'

Joe Morrell

87'

Lamine Sherrif

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnAccrington

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots15

9Corners8

17Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots15

6On Target4

5Off Target7

5Blocked4

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

308Total Passes317

196Accurate Passes188

64%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0