Lincoln Red Imps FC 2–1 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

Lincoln Red Imps FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lech Poznan

C. Rutjens 88'

K. Gomez 33'

M. Ishak 77' (pen)

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Victoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lincoln Red Imps FC26%

×Draw23%

Lech Poznan51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lincoln Red Imps FCExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.78

Lincoln Red Imps FC

1.19

Lech Poznan

1.78

Lech Poznan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.56

2.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lincoln Red Imps FC

1.00

Lech Poznan

1.56

allows per match

Lincoln Red Imps FC

2.00

Lech Poznan

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln Red Imps FC+0.00on par

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln Red Imps FC ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw

49%

Lincoln Red Imps FC or Lech Poznan

77%

Draw or Lech Poznan

74%

Winning margin

Lincoln Red Imps FC wins by 2+

10%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1+ goals

70%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 2+ goals

33%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 3+ goals

12%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

83%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

53%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Lincoln Red Imps FC (draw refunded)

33%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln Red Imps FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln Red Imps FC attack 1.00 + Lech Poznan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lech Poznan attack 1.56 + Lincoln Red Imps FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lincoln Red Imps FC scores more

26%

level

23%

Lech Poznan scores more

51%

Lech Poznan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Rutjens

Lincoln Red Imps FC · D

8.3

Match Events

25'

Yannick Agnero

33'

K. Gomez↳ B. Lopes

46'

J. Pereira← R. Gumny

46'

L. Palma← L. Bengtsson

46'

T. Ismaheel← Y. Agnero

53'

Boubacar Sidik Dabo

57'

M. Ishak← B. Fiabema

61'

N. Pozo← K. Gomez

72'

A. Kozubal← G. Thordarson

76'

Jaylan Hankins

77'

M. IshakPenalty

82'

Juanje← B. Dabo

87'

J. Toscano← V. Villacanas

88'

C. Rutjens↳ T. Kolega

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnLech

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots20

1.03Expected Goals (xG)2.89

4Corners6

15Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots20

3On Target5

5Off Target9

4Blocked6

6Inside Box15

6Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

260Total Passes423

185Accurate Passes338

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-1.63Goals Prevented-1.63

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0