Linares Unido 0–2 General Velásquez: Result & Stats

Linares Unido

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

General Velásquez

4/20/2024

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Tucapel Bustamante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Linares Unido40%

×Draw27%

General Velásquez33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares UnidoExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Linares Unido

1.33

General Velásquez

1.18

Linares Unido creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Linares Unido

1.35

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Linares Unido

1.29

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Unido+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Unido ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Linares Unido or draw

67%

Linares Unido or General Velásquez

73%

Draw or General Velásquez

60%

Winning margin

Linares Unido wins by 2+

18%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Linares Unido 1+ goals

74%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

38%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

15%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

69%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

33%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

55%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Unido at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Unido attack 1.35 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Linares Unido defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Linares Unido scores more

40%

level

27%

General Velásquez scores more

33%

Linares Unido at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Linares Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff