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General Velásquez vs Linares Unido — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Unido
Linares Unido
4/27/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

General Velásquez44%
×Draw27%
Linares Unido29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.35
Linares Unido
1.05

General Velásquez creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 55 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Linares Unido
1.07

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Linares Unido
1.27

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Linares Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
71%
General Velásquez or Linares Unido
73%
Draw or Linares Unido
56%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
20%
Linares Unido wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
74%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
39%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
15%
Linares Unido 1+ goals
65%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
28%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
60%
Linares Unido (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

General Velásquez scores more
44%
level
27%
Linares Unido scores more
29%

General Velásquez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: General Velásquez 1–1 Linares Unido

General Velásquez and Linares Unido drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.