Linares Unido 0–1 Fernández Vial: Result & Stats

Linares Unido

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fernández Vial

7/22/2023

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Tucapel Bustamante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Linares Unido35%

×Draw27%

Fernández Vial38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares UnidoExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.25

Linares Unido

1.18

Fernández Vial

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

1.35

creates per match

1.21

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Linares Unido

1.35

Fernández Vial

1.21

allows per match

Linares Unido

1.29

Fernández Vial

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Unido+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Unido ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Linares Unido or draw

62%

Linares Unido or Fernández Vial

73%

Draw or Fernández Vial

65%

Winning margin

Linares Unido wins by 2+

14%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Linares Unido 1+ goals

69%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

33%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

12%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

71%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

36%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

48%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Unido at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Unido attack 1.35 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Linares Unido defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Linares Unido scores more

35%

level

27%

Fernández Vial scores more

38%

Fernández Vial at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff