Linares Deportivo 3–0 Talavera: Result & Stats

Linares Deportivo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Talavera

1/29/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linares Deportivo51%

×Draw25%

Talavera24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchTalavera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.99

Linares Deportivo

1.59

Talavera

0.99

Linares Deportivo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 54 away

1.53

creates per match

0.94

1.05

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

1.53

Talavera

0.94

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

1.05

Talavera

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Talavera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

76%

Linares Deportivo or Talavera

75%

Draw or Talavera

49%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

27%

Talavera wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

80%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

47%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

21%

Talavera 1+ goals

63%

Talavera 2+ goals

26%

Talavera 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

68%

Talavera (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Talavera away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.53 + Talavera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Talavera attack 0.94 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

51%

level

25%

Talavera scores more

24%

Linares Deportivo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff