Linares Deportivo 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Linares Deportivo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

4/16/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linares Deportivo49%

×Draw26%

Rayo Majadahonda25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Linares Deportivo

1.50

Rayo Majadahonda

1.00

Linares Deportivo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

1.53

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

1.53

Rayo Majadahonda

0.96

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

1.05

Rayo Majadahonda

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

75%

Linares Deportivo or Rayo Majadahonda

74%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

51%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

25%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

78%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

44%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

19%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

63%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

26%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

66%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.53 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

49%

level

26%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

25%

Linares Deportivo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff