Linares Deportivo 1–0 Málaga II: Result & Stats

Linares Deportivo

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Málaga II

12/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo55%

×Draw25%

Málaga II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.84

Linares Deportivo

1.58

Málaga II

0.84

Linares Deportivo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

2.07

creates per match

1.35

0.33

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

2.07

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

0.33

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Málaga II →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

80%

Linares Deportivo or Málaga II

75%

Draw or Málaga II

45%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

29%

Málaga II wins by 2+

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

79%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

47%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

21%

Málaga II 1+ goals

57%

Málaga II 2+ goals

21%

Málaga II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

73%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.58

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

55%

level

25%

Málaga II scores more

20%

Linares Deportivo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Málaga II

Linares Deportivo beat Málaga II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.

Linares Deportivo vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Málaga II