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Linares Deportivo vs Loja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Loja
Loja
12/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo72%
×Draw18%
Loja10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
2.16
Loja
0.65

Linares Deportivo creates 232% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
2.07
Loja
0.97

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.33
Loja
2.24

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
90%
Linares Deportivo or Loja
82%
Draw or Loja
28%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
47%
Loja wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
88%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
63%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
36%
Loja 1+ goals
48%
Loja 2+ goals
14%
Loja 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
88%
Loja (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.16

Loja attack 0.97 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
72%
level
18%
Loja scores more
10%

Linares Deportivo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Loja

Linares Deportivo beat Loja 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.