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Linares Deportivo vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
4/30/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linares Deportivo48%
×Draw27%
Badajoz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.40
Badajoz
0.91

Linares Deportivo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
1.53
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
1.05
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
76%
Linares Deportivo or Badajoz
73%
Draw or Badajoz
52%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
23%
Badajoz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
75%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
41%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
17%
Badajoz 1+ goals
60%
Badajoz 2+ goals
23%
Badajoz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
66%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.53 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
48%
level
27%
Badajoz scores more
24%

Linares Deportivo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Linares Deportivo 2–1 Badajoz

Linares Deportivo beat Badajoz 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.