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Linares Deportivo vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
5/5/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Linares Deportivo42%
×Draw29%
Atlético Madrid II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.22
Atlético Madrid II
0.97

Linares Deportivo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
1.18
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.76
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
71%
Linares Deportivo or Atlético Madrid II
71%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
58%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.18 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
42%
level
29%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
29%

Linares Deportivo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Linares Deportivo 0–0 Atlético Madrid II

Linares Deportivo and Atlético Madrid II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.