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Limón Black Star vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
FT
0 – 3
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
9/18/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 10Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Limón Black Star39%
×Draw24%
Escorpiones Belén36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limón Black Star
1.52
Escorpiones Belén
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 87 away

creates per match

Limón Black Star
1.54
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Limón Black Star
1.29
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Limón Black Star+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limón Black Star ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Limón Black Star or draw
64%
Limón Black Star or Escorpiones Belén
76%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
61%

Winning margin

Limón Black Star wins by 2+
19%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Limón Black Star 1+ goals
78%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
45%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
20%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
77%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
42%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
52%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limón Black Star at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limón Black Star attack 1.54 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Limón Black Star defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Limón Black Star scores more
39%
level
24%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
36%

Limón Black Star at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Limón Black Star vs Escorpiones Belén

Escorpiones Belén beat Limón Black Star 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar in Guápiles.