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Limerick vs Athlone Town — First Division 2019

Limerick
Limerick
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
3/29/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 6Markets Field (Limerick)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limerick53%
×Draw24%
Athlone Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limerick
1.73
Athlone Town
1.06

Limerick creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 119 away

creates per match

Limerick
1.57
Athlone Town
1.04

allows per match

Limerick
1.07
Athlone Town
1.88

finishing

Limerick+0.00on par
Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limerick ↓

Athlone Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Limerick or draw
77%
Limerick or Athlone Town
76%
Draw or Athlone Town
47%

Winning margin

Limerick wins by 2+
29%
Athlone Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Limerick 1+ goals
82%
Limerick 2+ goals
52%
Limerick 3+ goals
25%
Athlone Town 1+ goals
65%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
29%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Limerick (draw refunded)
70%
Athlone Town (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limerick at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limerick attack 1.57 + Athlone Town defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Limerick defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Limerick scores more
53%
level
24%
Athlone Town scores more
23%

Limerick at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Limerick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Limerick 2–0 Athlone Town

Limerick beat Athlone Town 2-0 in First Division on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Markets Field (Limerick).