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Lime Hall Academy vs Mount Pleasant Academy — Premier League 2019

Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
1/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy13%
×Draw20%
Mount Pleasant Academy68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lime Hall Academy
0.76
Mount Pleasant Academy
2.07

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 172% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 103 away

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy
0.69
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.68

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy
2.46
Mount Pleasant Academy
0.83

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par
Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Mount Pleasant Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw
32%
Lime Hall Academy or Mount Pleasant Academy
80%
Draw or Mount Pleasant Academy
87%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
4%
Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
53%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
18%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
4%
Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
87%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
61%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
16%
Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Mount Pleasant Academy away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.68 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more
13%
level
20%
Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
68%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lime Hall Academy vs Mount Pleasant Academy

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Lime Hall Academy 4-1 in Premier League on January 3, 2024.

The match was played at Drax Hall Sports Complex in Saint Ann's Bay.