Lime Hall Academy 1–4 Dunbeholden: Result & Stats

Lime Hall Academy

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Dunbeholden

2/18/2024

Premier League · Round 19Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy22%

×Draw24%

Dunbeholden54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lime Hall AcademyExpected goals in this matchDunbeholden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.74

Lime Hall Academy

1.03

Dunbeholden

1.74

Dunbeholden creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

0.69

creates per match

1.02

2.46

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy

0.69

Dunbeholden

1.02

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy

2.46

Dunbeholden

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Dunbeholden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw

46%

Lime Hall Academy or Dunbeholden

76%

Draw or Dunbeholden

78%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+

8%

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals

64%

Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals

28%

Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals

9%

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

82%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

52%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)

29%

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more

22%

level

24%

Dunbeholden scores more

54%

Dunbeholden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff