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Limbaži vs Tukums — Cup 2020

Limbaži
Limbaži
FT
0 – 2
Tukums
Tukums
7/31/2021CupCup · Play-off RoundLimbažu stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Limbaži29%
×Draw28%
Tukums43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limbaži
1.00
Tukums
1.29

Tukums creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Limbaži
1.00
Tukums
1.57

allows per match

Limbaži
1.00
Tukums
1.00

finishing

Limbaži+0.00on par
Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limbaži ↓

Tukums →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Limbaži or draw
57%
Limbaži or Tukums
72%
Draw or Tukums
71%

Winning margin

Limbaži wins by 2+
11%
Tukums wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Limbaži 1+ goals
63%
Limbaži 2+ goals
26%
Limbaži 3+ goals
8%
Tukums 1+ goals
72%
Tukums 2+ goals
37%
Tukums 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Limbaži (draw refunded)
40%
Tukums (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limbaži at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Tukums away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limbaži attack 1.00 + Tukums defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tukums attack 1.57 + Limbaži defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Limbaži scores more
29%
level
28%
Tukums scores more
43%

Tukums at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Limbaži 0–2 Tukums

Tukums beat Limbaži 2-0 in Cup on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Limbažu stadions in Limbaži.