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Limbaži vs JDFS Alberts — Cup 2020

Limbaži
Limbaži
FT
0 – 0
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
8/23/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundSalacgrīvas Zvejnieku parka stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Limbaži19%
×Draw21%
JDFS Alberts60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limbaži
1.11
JDFS Alberts
2.11

JDFS Alberts creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Limbaži
1.00
JDFS Alberts
3.22

allows per match

Limbaži
1.00
JDFS Alberts
1.22

finishing

Limbaži+0.00on par
JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limbaži ↓

JDFS Alberts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Limbaži or draw
40%
Limbaži or JDFS Alberts
79%
Draw or JDFS Alberts
81%

Winning margin

Limbaži wins by 2+
7%
JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Limbaži 1+ goals
67%
Limbaži 2+ goals
30%
Limbaži 3+ goals
10%
JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
88%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
62%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Limbaži (draw refunded)
24%
JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limbaži at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

JDFS Alberts away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limbaži attack 1.00 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

JDFS Alberts attack 3.22 + Limbaži defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Limbaži scores more
19%
level
21%
JDFS Alberts scores more
60%

JDFS Alberts at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Limbaži 0–0 JDFS Alberts

Limbaži and JDFS Alberts drew 0-0 in Cup on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Salacgrīvas Zvejnieku parka stadions in Salacgrīva.