Limavady United 1–0 Warrenpoint Town

Limavady United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Warrenpoint Town

M. Kennedy 60'

8/16/2025

League #407 · Round 2The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Limavady United47%

×Draw26%

Warrenpoint Town27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Limavady UnitedExpected goals in this matchWarrenpoint Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.04

Limavady United

1.47

Warrenpoint Town

1.04

Limavady United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Limavady United

1.27

Warrenpoint Town

1.00

allows per match

Limavady United

1.07

Warrenpoint Town

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par

Warrenpoint Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Warrenpoint Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw

73%

Limavady United or Warrenpoint Town

74%

Draw or Warrenpoint Town

53%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+

23%

Warrenpoint Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals

77%

Limavady United 2+ goals

43%

Limavady United 3+ goals

18%

Warrenpoint Town 1+ goals

65%

Warrenpoint Town 2+ goals

28%

Warrenpoint Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)

64%

Warrenpoint Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Warrenpoint Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.27 + Warrenpoint Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Warrenpoint Town attack 1.00 + Limavady United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Limavady United scores more

47%

level

26%

Warrenpoint Town scores more

27%

Limavady United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

M. Kennedy

Limavady

Warrenpoint

Manager: P. Owens

Manager: J. Gill