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Limavady United vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Limavady United
Limavady United
FT
1 – 1
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
5/2/2023League #561League #561 · Promotion Round - 5The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Limavady United51%
×Draw22%
Moyola Park26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limavady United
1.91
Moyola Park
1.31

Limavady United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

creates per match

Limavady United
1.86
Moyola Park
1.32

allows per match

Limavady United
1.29
Moyola Park
1.96

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw
74%
Limavady United or Moyola Park
78%
Draw or Moyola Park
49%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+
29%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals
85%
Limavady United 2+ goals
57%
Limavady United 3+ goals
30%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
73%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
38%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)
66%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.86 + Moyola Park defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Moyola Park attack 1.32 + Limavady United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Limavady United scores more
51%
level
22%
Moyola Park scores more
26%

Limavady United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Limavady United 1–1 Moyola Park

Limavady United and Moyola Park drew 1-1 in League #561 on May 2, 2023.

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Limavady.