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Limavady United vs Coleraine FC — Friendlies Clubs 2021

Limavady United
Limavady United
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
McLaughlin 14'
7/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Limavady United15%
×Draw17%
Coleraine FC68%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limavady United
1.21
Coleraine FC
2.67

Coleraine FC creates 121% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Limavady United
1.50
Coleraine FC
2.83

allows per match

Limavady United
2.50
Coleraine FC
0.92

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par
Coleraine FC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Coleraine FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw
32%
Limavady United or Coleraine FC
83%
Draw or Coleraine FC
85%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+
6%
Coleraine FC wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals
70%
Limavady United 2+ goals
34%
Limavady United 3+ goals
12%
Coleraine FC 1+ goals
93%
Coleraine FC 2+ goals
74%
Coleraine FC 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)
18%
Coleraine FC (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Coleraine FC away — creates 2.83, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.50 + Coleraine FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Coleraine FC attack 2.83 + Limavady United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Limavady United scores more
15%
level
17%
Coleraine FC scores more
68%

Coleraine FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
McLaughlin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Limavady United 1–4 Coleraine FC

Coleraine FC beat Limavady United 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2024.

Goals: McLaughlin (14').

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Limavady.