Lillestrom 3–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stabaek

M. Haakenstad 83', 81'

T. Olsen 48'

F. Boli 70', 69' (pen)

9/30/2018

Eliteserien · Round 24Åråsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lillestrom48%

×Draw22%

Stabaek30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.48

Lillestrom

1.94

Stabaek

1.48

Lillestrom creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

1.74

creates per match

1.63

1.33

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.74

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.33

Stabaek

2.15

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.11scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

70%

Lillestrom or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

52%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

27%

Stabaek wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

86%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

58%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

30%

Stabaek 1+ goals

77%

Stabaek 2+ goals

43%

Stabaek 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

62%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.74 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Lillestrom defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lillestrom scores more

48%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

30%

Lillestrom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Haakenstad

Lillestrom · D

8.7

Match Events

11'

A. Hanche-Olsen← S. Strømnes

15'

Tobias Borchgrevink Borkeeiet

42'

Daniel Alexander Pedersen

48'

T. Olsen

68'

Marko Maric

69'

F. BoliPenalty

70'

F. Boli↳ A. Keita

72'

Hugo Vetlesen

74'

Aboubakar Keita

75'

M. Haakenstad← E. Brenden

75'

K. Ødemarksbakken← F. Krogstad

81'

M. Haakenstad↳ K. Ødemarksbakken

83'

M. Haakenstad

88'

R. Ayagwa← T. Olsen

90'

O. Aga← M. Njie

90'

F. Valenčič← H. Vetlesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromStabaek

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots15

0Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target5

7Off Target7

0Blocked3

7Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

374Total Passes421

261Accurate Passes309

70%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs Stabaek

Lillestrom beat Stabaek 3-2 in Eliteserien on September 30, 2018.

Goals: T. Olsen (48'), F. Boli (69' pen, 70'), M. Haakenstad (81', 83').

Stabaek controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Åråsen in Lillestrom.

Lillestrom vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs Stabaek