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Lillestrom vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
Preview
14:00
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
7/18/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 14
49%
Lillestrom
model favours
49%23%28%

KFUM Oslo score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lillestrom49%
×Draw23%
KFUM Oslo28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrom
1.81
KFUM Oslo
1.31

Lillestrom creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lillestrom
2.00
KFUM Oslo
1.13

allows per match

Lillestrom
1.50
KFUM Oslo
1.61

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par
KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw
72%
Lillestrom or KFUM Oslo
77%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
51%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+
27%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals
84%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
54%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
27%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
73%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
38%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)
64%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 2.00 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 + Lillestrom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lillestrom scores more
49%
level
23%
KFUM Oslo scores more
28%

Lillestrom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lillestrom
WWLLL
Oslo
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lillestrom host KFUM Oslo

July 18, 2026: Lillestrom take on KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.