Lillestrom 0–5 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

K. Høgh 82'

H. Evjen 77'

A. Grønbæk 59'

P. Berg 55'

N. Žugelj 11'

4/14/2024

Eliteserien · Round 3Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Lillestrom37%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.65

Lillestrom

1.58

Bodo/Glimt

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

1.83

creates per match

2.01

1.28

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.83

Bodo/Glimt

2.01

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.28

Bodo/Glimt

1.33

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less

Bodo/Glimt+0.02on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

60%

Lillestrom or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

63%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

18%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

79%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

47%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

21%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

81%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

49%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

48%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.28 · 19 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.83 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.01 + Lillestrom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lillestrom scores more

37%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

40%

Bodo/Glimt at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Bjørkan

Bodo/Glimt · D

8.7

Match Events

11'

N. Žugelj↳ J. Gundersen

19'

Jens Petter Hauge

48'

Håkon Evjen

55'

P. Berg

59'

A. Grønbæk↳ A. Mikkelsen

63'

A. Karlin← E. Kitolano

63'

Vá← H. Skogvold

69'

K. Høgh← A. Mikkelsen

75'

B. Wembangomo← F. Sjøvold

75'

S. Sørli← N. Žugelj

76'

Patrick Berg

77'

H. Evjen↳ S. Sørli

78'

U. Seferi← Y. Ibrahimaj

78'

K. Tønnessen← M. Roseth

82'

K. Høgh

84'

A. Sørensen← F. Bjørkan

84'

O. Bjørtuft← B. Moe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromBodo/Glimt

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots14

0.86Expected Goals (xG)2.95

2Corners2

8Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target6

2Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box11

1Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

471Total Passes597

394Accurate Passes531

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls6

0Yellow Cards3