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Lillestrøm U19 vs Strømsgodset U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Lillestrøm U19
Lillestrøm U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Strømsgodset U19
Strømsgodset U19
2/17/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lillestrøm U1953%
×Draw19%
Strømsgodset U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrøm U19
2.65
Strømsgodset U19
1.91

Lillestrøm U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lillestrøm U19
2.19
Strømsgodset U19
2.19

allows per match

Lillestrøm U19
1.62
Strømsgodset U19
3.10

finishing

Lillestrøm U19+0.00on par
Strømsgodset U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm U19 ↓

Strømsgodset U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Lillestrøm U19 or draw
72%
Lillestrøm U19 or Strømsgodset U19
81%
Draw or Strømsgodset U19
47%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm U19 wins by 2+
34%
Strømsgodset U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lillestrøm U19 1+ goals
93%
Lillestrøm U19 2+ goals
74%
Lillestrøm U19 3+ goals
48%
Strømsgodset U19 1+ goals
85%
Strømsgodset U19 2+ goals
57%
Strømsgodset U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Strømsgodset U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Strømsgodset U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm U19 attack 2.19 + Strømsgodset U19 defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.65

Strømsgodset U19 attack 2.19 + Lillestrøm U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lillestrøm U19 scores more
53%
level
19%
Strømsgodset U19 scores more
28%

Lillestrøm U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lillestrøm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Lillestrøm U19 1–1 Strømsgodset U19

Lillestrøm U19 and Strømsgodset U19 drew 1-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at LSK-hallen in Lillestrøm.