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Lillestrøm U19 vs KFUM U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Lillestrøm U19
Lillestrøm U19
CANC
17:00
KFUM U19
KFUM U19
6/23/2021Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group B - 5LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lillestrøm U1968%
×Draw16%
KFUM U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrøm U19
2.84
KFUM U19
1.31

Lillestrøm U19 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lillestrøm U19
2.19
KFUM U19
1.00

allows per match

Lillestrøm U19
1.62
KFUM U19
3.50

finishing

Lillestrøm U19+0.00on par
KFUM U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm U19 ↓

KFUM U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Lillestrøm U19 or draw
85%
Lillestrøm U19 or KFUM U19
84%
Draw or KFUM U19
32%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm U19 wins by 2+
48%
KFUM U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lillestrøm U19 1+ goals
94%
Lillestrøm U19 2+ goals
77%
Lillestrøm U19 3+ goals
53%
KFUM U19 1+ goals
73%
KFUM U19 2+ goals
38%
KFUM U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm U19 (draw refunded)
82%
KFUM U19 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

KFUM U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm U19 attack 2.19 + KFUM U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.84

KFUM U19 attack 1.00 + Lillestrøm U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lillestrøm U19 scores more
68%
level
16%
KFUM U19 scores more
15%

Lillestrøm U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lillestrøm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lillestrøm U19 face KFUM U19 (Nasjonal U19 Champions League)

Nasjonal U19 Champions League returns with Lillestrøm U19 hosting KFUM U19. Match starts June 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lillestrøm U19 host KFUM U19 at LSK-hallen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.