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Lillestrøm U19 vs HamKam U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Lillestrøm U19
Lillestrøm U19
FT
1 – 2
HamKam U19
HamKam U19
3/12/2023Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 4Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lillestrøm U1951%
×Draw20%
HamKam U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrøm U19
2.43
HamKam U19
1.81

Lillestrøm U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lillestrøm U19
2.19
HamKam U19
2.00

allows per match

Lillestrøm U19
1.62
HamKam U19
2.67

finishing

Lillestrøm U19+0.00on par
HamKam U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm U19 ↓

HamKam U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Lillestrøm U19 or draw
71%
Lillestrøm U19 or HamKam U19
80%
Draw or HamKam U19
49%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm U19 wins by 2+
32%
HamKam U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lillestrøm U19 1+ goals
91%
Lillestrøm U19 2+ goals
69%
Lillestrøm U19 3+ goals
43%
HamKam U19 1+ goals
84%
HamKam U19 2+ goals
54%
HamKam U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm U19 (draw refunded)
64%
HamKam U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

HamKam U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm U19 attack 2.19 + HamKam U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.43

HamKam U19 attack 2.00 + Lillestrøm U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lillestrøm U19 scores more
51%
level
20%
HamKam U19 scores more
29%

Lillestrøm U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lillestrøm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Lillestrøm U19 1–2 HamKam U19

HamKam U19 beat Lillestrøm U19 2-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.