Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lillestrøm II vs Ullern II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ullern II
Ullern II
B. Torgersen Morch 75'
P. Slordahl 52'
E. S. Furaha 47'
L. Folstad 2' (OG)
10/2/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 22Skjetten Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lillestrøm II75%
×Draw14%
Ullern II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrøm II
3.19
Ullern II
1.23

Lillestrøm II creates 159% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lillestrøm II
2.37
Ullern II
1.08

allows per match

Lillestrøm II
1.37
Ullern II
4.00

finishing

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par
Ullern II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm II ↓

Ullern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Lillestrøm II or draw
88%
Lillestrøm II or Ullern II
86%
Draw or Ullern II
25%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
56%
Ullern II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
96%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
82%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
60%
Ullern II 1+ goals
71%
Ullern II 2+ goals
35%
Ullern II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
87%
Ullern II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Ullern II away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm II attack 2.37 + Ullern II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.19

Ullern II attack 1.08 + Lillestrøm II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Lillestrøm II scores more
75%
level
14%
Ullern II scores more
12%

Lillestrøm II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lillestrøm II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
L. FolstadOwn goal
47'
E. S. Furaha
52'
P. Slordahl
75'
B. Torgersen Morch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Lillestrøm II 4–0 Ullern II

Lillestrøm II beat Ullern II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 2, 2023.

Goals: L. Folstad (2' o.g.), E. S. Furaha (47'), P. Slordahl (52'), B. Torgersen Morch (75').

The match was played at Skjetten Stadion in Skjetten.