Lillestrøm II 5–0 Ullensaker / Kisa II

Lillestrøm II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ullensaker / Kisa II

10/26/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 26LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lillestrøm II83%

×Draw10%

Ullensaker / Kisa II7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lillestrøm IIExpected goals in this matchUllensaker / Kisa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.16

1.27

Lillestrøm II

4.16

Ullensaker / Kisa II

1.27

Lillestrøm II creates 228% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.69

creates per match

0.77

1.77

allows per match

5.62

creates per match

Lillestrøm II

2.69

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.77

allows per match

Lillestrøm II

1.77

Ullensaker / Kisa II

5.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm II ↓

Ullensaker / Kisa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Lillestrøm II or draw

93%

Lillestrøm II or Ullensaker / Kisa II

90%

Draw or Ullensaker / Kisa II

17%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+

68%

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals

98%

Lillestrøm II 2+ goals

91%

Lillestrøm II 3+ goals

75%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

72%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

36%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)

92%

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm II at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II away — creates 0.77, concedes 5.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm II attack 2.69 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 5.62 → ÷2 → 4.16

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 0.77 + Lillestrøm II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Lillestrøm II scores more

83%

level

10%

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

7%

Lillestrøm II at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Lillestrøm II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff