Lillestrøm II 6–0 Mosjøen: Result & Stats

Lillestrøm II

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Mosjøen

8/19/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 17LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lillestrøm II79%

×Draw12%

Mosjøen10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lillestrøm IIExpected goals in this matchMosjøen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.62

1.27

Lillestrøm II

3.62

Mosjøen

1.27

Lillestrøm II creates 185% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.85

creates per match

0.69

1.85

allows per match

4.38

creates per match

Lillestrøm II

2.85

Mosjøen

0.69

allows per match

Lillestrøm II

1.85

Mosjøen

4.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Mosjøen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrøm II ↓

Mosjøen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Lillestrøm II or draw

90%

Lillestrøm II or Mosjøen

88%

Draw or Mosjøen

21%

Winning margin

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+

61%

Mosjøen wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals

97%

Lillestrøm II 2+ goals

87%

Lillestrøm II 3+ goals

68%

Mosjøen 1+ goals

72%

Mosjøen 2+ goals

36%

Mosjøen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)

89%

Mosjøen (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrøm II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Mosjøen away — creates 0.69, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrøm II attack 2.85 + Mosjøen defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.62

Mosjøen attack 0.69 + Lillestrøm II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Lillestrøm II scores more

79%

level

12%

Mosjøen scores more

10%

Lillestrøm II at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Lillestrøm II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff