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Lillehammer vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Lillehammer
Lillehammer
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
8/9/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 15Jorekstad Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lillehammer50%
×Draw22%
Raufoss II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillehammer
2.04
Raufoss II
1.48

Lillehammer creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lillehammer
0.92
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Lillehammer
2.08
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Lillehammer+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillehammer ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lillehammer or draw
72%
Lillehammer or Raufoss II
78%
Draw or Raufoss II
50%

Winning margin

Lillehammer wins by 2+
29%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lillehammer 1+ goals
87%
Lillehammer 2+ goals
60%
Lillehammer 3+ goals
33%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
77%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
43%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lillehammer (draw refunded)
64%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillehammer at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillehammer attack 0.92 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Lillehammer defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lillehammer scores more
50%
level
22%
Raufoss II scores more
28%

Lillehammer at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lillehammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Lillehammer 1–2 Raufoss II

Raufoss II beat Lillehammer 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Jorekstad Kunstgress in Fåberg.