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Lillehammer vs Gjøvik-Lyn — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Lillehammer
Lillehammer
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gjøvik-Lyn
Gjøvik-Lyn
A. M. Leqvamb 49', 30'
S. Hammershaug 25'
S. Osterud 60'
5/14/20263. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lillehammer66%
×Draw18%
Gjøvik-Lyn17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillehammer
2.58
Gjøvik-Lyn
1.25

Lillehammer creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lillehammer
4.33
Gjøvik-Lyn
1.33

allows per match

Lillehammer
1.17
Gjøvik-Lyn
0.83

finishing

Lillehammer+0.00on par
Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillehammer ↓

Gjøvik-Lyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lillehammer or draw
83%
Lillehammer or Gjøvik-Lyn
82%
Draw or Gjøvik-Lyn
34%

Winning margin

Lillehammer wins by 2+
44%
Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lillehammer 1+ goals
92%
Lillehammer 2+ goals
72%
Lillehammer 3+ goals
47%
Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals
71%
Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals
36%
Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lillehammer (draw refunded)
79%
Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillehammer at home — creates 4.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Gjøvik-Lyn away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillehammer attack 4.33 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 1.33 + Lillehammer defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lillehammer scores more
66%
level
18%
Gjøvik-Lyn scores more
17%

Lillehammer at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lillehammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
S. Hammershaug
30'
A. M. Leqvamb
49'
A. M. Leqvamb
60'
S. Osterud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Lillehammer 3–1 Gjøvik-Lyn

Lillehammer beat Gjøvik-Lyn 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 14, 2026.

Goals: S. Hammershaug (25'), A. M. Leqvamb (30', 49'), S. Osterud (60').