Lille W 2–5 Stade de Reims W: Result & Stats

Lille W

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Stade de Reims W

12/16/2023

Feminine Division 1 · Round 11Complexe Sportif Stadium 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lille W30%

×Draw22%

Stade de Reims W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lille WExpected goals in this matchStade de Reims W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.91

Lille W

1.48

Stade de Reims W

1.91

Stade de Reims W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

1.00

creates per match

1.31

2.50

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Lille W

1.00

Stade de Reims W

1.31

allows per match

Lille W

2.50

Stade de Reims W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille W+0.00on par

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille W ↓

Stade de Reims W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lille W or draw

52%

Lille W or Stade de Reims W

78%

Draw or Stade de Reims W

70%

Winning margin

Lille W wins by 2+

14%

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lille W 1+ goals

77%

Lille W 2+ goals

43%

Lille W 3+ goals

19%

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals

85%

Stade de Reims W 2+ goals

57%

Stade de Reims W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Lille W (draw refunded)

39%

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille W attack 1.00 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Lille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lille W scores more

30%

level

22%

Stade de Reims W scores more

48%

Stade de Reims W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff