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Lille W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lille W
Lille W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
1/13/2019Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 15Stadium Nord Lille Métropole (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lille W11%
×Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain W73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille W
0.91
Paris Saint Germain W
2.56

Paris Saint Germain W creates 181% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 86 away

creates per match

Lille W
1.00
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Lille W
2.50
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Lille W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lille W or draw
27%
Lille W or Paris Saint Germain W
84%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
89%

Winning margin

Lille W wins by 2+
4%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Lille W 1+ goals
60%
Lille W 2+ goals
23%
Lille W 3+ goals
6%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
92%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
72%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Lille W (draw refunded)
14%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille W attack 1.00 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Lille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lille W scores more
11%
level
16%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
73%

Paris Saint Germain W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lille W 1 – 3 Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Lille W 3-1 in Feminine Division 1 on January 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Nord Lille Métropole (Villeneuve d'Ascq).