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Lille W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lille W
Lille W
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Lyon W
Lyon W
3/23/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 18Stadium Nord Lille Métropole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lille W6%
×Draw12%
Lyon W82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille W
0.74
Lyon W
3.02

Lyon W creates 308% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lille W
1.00
Lyon W
3.55

allows per match

Lille W
2.50
Lyon W
0.49

finishing

Lille W+0.00on par
Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille W ↓

Lyon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lille W or draw
18%
Lille W or Lyon W
88%
Draw or Lyon W
94%

Winning margin

Lille W wins by 2+
2%
Lyon W wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Lille W 1+ goals
52%
Lille W 2+ goals
17%
Lille W 3+ goals
4%
Lyon W 1+ goals
95%
Lyon W 2+ goals
80%
Lyon W 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Lille W (draw refunded)
7%
Lyon W (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille W attack 1.00 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.74

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Lille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lille W scores more
6%
level
12%
Lyon W scores more
82%

Lyon W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Lille W 0–7 Lyon W

Lyon W beat Lille W 7-0 in Feminine Division 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadium Nord Lille Métropole in Villeneuve d'Ascq.