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Lille W vs Guingamp W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lille W
Lille W
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Guingamp W
Guingamp W
3/16/2019Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 18Complexe Sportif de Luchin (Camphin-en-Pévèle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lille W38%
×Draw23%
Guingamp W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille W
1.63
Guingamp W
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 73 away

creates per match

Lille W
1.00
Guingamp W
0.77

allows per match

Lille W
2.50
Guingamp W
2.25

finishing

Lille W+0.00on par
Guingamp W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille W ↓

Guingamp W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lille W or draw
61%
Lille W or Guingamp W
77%
Draw or Guingamp W
62%

Winning margin

Lille W wins by 2+
19%
Guingamp W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lille W 1+ goals
80%
Lille W 2+ goals
48%
Lille W 3+ goals
22%
Guingamp W 1+ goals
81%
Guingamp W 2+ goals
49%
Guingamp W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lille W (draw refunded)
50%
Guingamp W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Guingamp W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille W attack 1.00 + Guingamp W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guingamp W attack 0.77 + Lille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lille W scores more
38%
level
23%
Guingamp W scores more
39%

Guingamp W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guingamp W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Lille W 3–3 Guingamp W

Lille W and Guingamp W drew 3-3 in Feminine Division 1 on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Luchin (Camphin-en-Pévèle).